Don’t miss Mike Causey’s latest column. Sign up for the daily Federal Report email. While there is no evidence federal workers and retirees vote as a bloc, what if they did? In a close race, in some states, members of the fed family could and would make the difference. In others, those with exceptionally large numbers of federal operations and military bases, the fed family vote could determine the winner even if the race...
Don’t miss Mike Causey’s latest column. Sign up for the daily Federal Report email.
While there is no evidence federal workers and retirees vote as a bloc, what if they did? In a close race, in some states, members of the fed family could and would make the difference. In others, those with exceptionally large numbers of federal operations and military bases, the fed family vote could determine the winner even if the race wasn’t otherwise close. Consider: There are primaries today in five of the nation’s largest (and therefore politically dominate) states. First the Republicans:
Florida, home state and a must-win for Sen.Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has 293,852 federal workers and federal retirees. Of that total, 169,000 are retired civil servants. Many came from other parts of the country, but nearly all now vote in Florida. And they do vote. They could pick the winner even if the race wasn’t otherwise close. There are 99 Republican delegates at stake.
Ohio is often consider a must-win state because of its track record of going with (some would say predicting) the winner. Gov. John Kaisich (R-Ohio) is the odds-on favorite. Some say he must win the state to keep in the race. Ohio has 148,679 feds and retirees. Of that group, 74,303 are retired. There are 66 Republican delegates up for grabs.
Illinois, another key state in the delegate count, has 145,127 federal workers and retirees. Of that group, 68,466 are retired. There are 69 GOP delegates to be won. Or lost.
North Carolina has 137,616 federal workers and retirees. That’s a huge number given the state’s population. About 74,500 of that number are retirees. There are 72 GOP delegates to be chosen by Tar Heel state voters.
Missouri has 96,222 federal workers and retirees. Just over half that number, 53,501 are actually retired federal or postal employees. But well old enough to register and vote.
The numbers are the same for the Democrats. But the delegate count is different. For instance:
In Florida, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) will be after its 246 Democratic delegates.
In Ohio, there are 159 Democratic delegates as the prize.
In Illinois, the Democratic delegate count is 182.
North Carolina Democrats will decide who gets, or shares, in its 121 delegates.
It’s a winner-take-all deal for Florida, Missouri and Ohio.
Pundits abound. Some think today’s vote (if it goes badly for them) could force Rubio and/or Kasich to drop out. Others say that if Sanders doesn’t pull another Michigan-style upset he’s toast.
For both parties there is the 800-pound elephant in the room that everybody is watching. That would be love-him-or-loathe-him billionaire Donald Trump. He’s been the big, consistent winner capturing more than one-third of the GOP vote and terrorizing nearly two-thirds of it. Most of all, the so-called GOP establishment who, months ago figured one of their more “moderate” candidates would be well ahead, and maybe even the winner after today’s results are in.
And now, my predictions for who will win the five-state mega prizes. If I do not pick at least four of the five winners, in both the Democratic and Republican races, I will publicly burn my Inside The Beltway Hotshot Political Analyst card and decoder ring. Here goes, first the GOP winner-take-all delegates in Florida will be …
(Editors Note: Because of a technical problem the last portion of today’s Federal Report cannot be retrieved at this point. It will run in this space on Wednesday when Mr. Causey’s predictions for the Tuesday winners will appear in this space on Wednesday).