Commentary

Shutdown winners and losers

The truth is that shutdowns are bad, no one wins, and everyone loses. The sooner it is over the better off we will all be.

Jeff Neal@JeffNealHR

December 28, 2018 9:44 am

3 min read

With the partial government shutdown heading into a second week, it is a good time to look at who wins and who loses in a shutdown.

Winners

The media. With shutdown clocks in the chyron and constant coverage of the shutdown, the shutdown feeds the 24-hour news channels. Since the beginning of all-news channels (that have devolved into some news and mostly opinion), cable news channels have craved content. A government shutdown, even if it is not the entire government, is great content.

Opponents of government. Anyone who does not like government in general can get satisfaction out of seeing a portion of the government shut down without immediate consequences. The fact that shutdowns are really faux shutdowns that make certain people doing jobs that affect national security and public safety are on the job makes it likely that the negative consequences take time to be seen.

Some politicians. Believe it or not, some politicians are going to benefit from a demonstration of our government’s inability to function effectively. It may be the President, if he gets what he wants, or it may be once and future Speaker Pelosi, or it may be someone who comes up with a face-saving way out of this mess.

Losers

The people. We elected members of Congress and a President to do the jobs the Constitution assigns to them. So far we are not getting what we paid for.

The media. Yes, the same ones who are winners. We may watch the coverage, and they may collect the ad revenue, but we eventually get sick of non-stop coverage and tune out.

Opponents of big government. Another winner that eventually loses. Reducing the size of government might be a good idea, but mindlessly shutting it down, then spending a fortune to undo the damage is certainly not the way to do it. The last long-term full shutdown had a $25 billion price tag. Taxpayers are not happy about seeing their money going down the toilet.

Supporters of big government. Anything that sends a message, even a false message, that large parts of the government can stop functioning without an immediate negative impact encourages people to view federal workers as inconsequential bureaucrats. It is not true, but it still does damage.

Contractors. When we see stories about shutdowns, the focus is typically on federal workers. Those federal workers who are not working are almost certainly going to get back pay. Many contractors (particularly in small businesses) who are not working now are not getting paid. They are not going to get back pay and this shutdown is taking money out of their pockets. The companies that employ them are also not being paid, so their bottom line will suffer.

Businesses patronized by federal workers and contractors. These folks drive a lot of economic activity. Some of it is as simple as eating lunch. Restaurants that have a large federal worker/contractor customer base are hurting. They lose revenue and no one makes them whole. Other businesses suffer the same fate. Businesses buy goods and services from other businesses. Workers do not spend money when they are not being paid. For many companies, a shutdown could make the difference in profit and loss for the entire year. Who writes the check to make them whole? Nobody.

All of us. The truth is that shutdowns are bad, no one wins, and everyone loses. The sooner it is over the better off we will all be.

Jeff Neal is a senior vice president for ICF and founder of the blog, ChiefHRO.com. Before coming to ICF, Neal was the chief human capital officer at the Homeland Security Department and the chief human resources officer at the Defense Logistics Agency.