With Republicans retaking the Senate, the upper chamber’s top oversight committee for government operations is set for a major leadership shakeup.

The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee for the last four years has been led by Chairman Gary Peters (D-Mich.). But after this week’s election results, Ranking Member Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is line to take the HSGAC gavel early next year.

The major caveat is that Paul also has the seniority to instead seek chairmanship of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions.

Federal News Network has reached out to Paul’s office for comment on his plans.

But multiple Capitol Hill sources interviewed for this story noted Paul could favorably view HSGAC’s broad platform to launch investigations across government operations. The committee also oversees the Department of Homeland Security, a frequent target of Paul’s crusade against federal spending and overreach.

Paul was elected ranking member of HSGAC in February 2023. He has largely focused on investigating issues like the origins of COVID-19 and federal virology research; fraud, waste and abuse; and agency efforts to address disinformation on social media.

As chairman, Paul would have the power to shape issues that are central to President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda. A former HSGAC staffer, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Paul would likely be an ally in Trump’s plans to establish a government efficiency commission and rein in spending under Biden-era bills like the Inflation Reduction Act. The staffer also predicted Paul would not present a roadblock in Trump’s plans to overhaul the federal workforce.

“I do think Rand Paul is going to oversee a tremendous amount of backward-looking investigations that will provide top cover for Trump to make significant organizational changes inside government,” the former HSGAC staffer said.

But multiple former Hill staff said Paul, one of the most “principled” members of the Senate, is highly unlikely to rubberstamp Trump’s requests for new funding and authorities at agencies like DHS.

Trump has pledged to ramp up immigration enforcement and carry out mass deportations. “It’s not a question of a price tag. It’s not — really, we have no choice,” Trump told NBC News this week.

Paul, an avowed deficit hawk and proponent of limited government, has routinely pushed back on any legislation that expands DHS’s authorities and spending powers as HSGAC ranking member.

“Anything that expands the power of the federal government, [Paul’s] going to be naturally skeptical of,” another former congressional staffer noted.

The former staffers said that dynamic could put a Chairman Paul at odds with Trump’s plans, although it’s unclear to what extent the president-elect would seek new authorities to carry out his immigration agenda.

HSGAC legislative outlook

In four years under Peters, HSGAC has been productive on the legislative front. The committee has passed numerous reforms on issues including the federal workforce, technology procurement and cybersecurity. When Republicans last controlled the Senate from 2017 through 2020, HSGAC was similarly productive under then-Chairman Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

But if Paul were to take the gavel, he may set a higher bar for legislation to be considered by the committee. As ranking member, Paul has voted against numerous bills due to his concerns about government spending.

“For the second time in seven days, we are meeting again to furiously consider 13 bills, only 3 of which we have bothered to understand the costs,” Paul said during a July 2023 HSGAC markup. “I wish this markup was an exception to the norm, but astonishingly, it is all too frequent that my colleagues in Congress blindly vote on bills without any regard to this nation’s dire fiscal circumstances.”

The former HSGAC staffer noted Paul is less interested in legislating compared to investigations and oversight. “He is not in the business of providing government any additional authorities,” the former staffer said.

HSGAC also oversees the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which has received largely bipartisan support since being established in 2018. CISA has also received more funding and authorities over the years to address cyber threats to federal networks and critical infrastructure.

But Paul has been at odds with CISA over what he views as the agency’s attempts to “censor” free speech on social media. Last year, Paul also blocked bipartisan efforts to reauthorize CISA’s chemical security program.

“He’s made it very clear that he is not a fan of CISA,” the former HSGAC staffer said, adding that the issue could become a major roadblock for any cyber bills passing the committee.

If Paul does become chairman of HSGAC, however, he could seek out more compromises to help advance his own agenda, one former staffer noted.

“Being in the majority, it changes your perspective,” the former staffer said. “It changes your mindset. ‘Well, here’s three things I want to accomplish, and to do that, I’ve got to bring six Dems onboard. Got to find a way to get it through the House at some point.’ I don’t think we know yet whether Paul is going to look to get things done, or just use the platform to lay out the full extent of his ideas.”

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