Odds for LA Mayor Race: Trade on Prediction Markets for Elections

• The Los Angeles mayoral primary is set for Tuesday, June 2, with polls showing incumbent Mayor Karen Bass with a tiny lead over challengers Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt
• Pollsters are saying that Bass’s lead is statistically insignificant, making it unlikely for any candidate to achieve a majority; such an outcome would force a runoff between the top two candidates on November 3
• Prediction markets are offering options to stake a position as to which candidate will ultimately be elected L.A. mayor

The campaign for Los Angeles mayor has followed an unexpected path since reality TV veteran Spencer Pratt entered the fray. Initially dismissed as a self-aggrandizing joke, Pratt’s media appearances embracing his past role while offering commonsense solutions to problems residents are legitimately concerned about have gotten him noticed. His skillful use of artificial intelligence to create viral ads has boosted his candidacy further.

With Bass and Raman likely to split the Democratic vote, the door is open for Pratt to get into the runoff in November. In a one-on-one in the current political climate, with the litany of problems L.A. is facing, anything is possible. That includes getting Mayor Spencer Pratt.

The most recent poll by UC Berkeley-L.A. Times has Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22%.

Of course, polls are increasingly being called into question after Donald J. Trump outperformed them in 2016 and 2024. In 2020, when he lost, he still garnered more votes at the time than anyone in the history of the republic apart from the man who defeated him, Joseph R. Biden. With the margin of error for the mayoral poll being around 3%, the candidates are essentially tied.

Prediction markets offer an opportunity for users to jump in and make a pick.

Odds for Next LA Mayor

Volume for this market is extremely heavy, already beyond $25 million and climbing.

Bass is still well in front in the markets, with about 60% implied probability to win. Pratt’s growing recognizability has yielded a rapid spike in his chances as he’s jumped ahead of Raman and is now at around 23%. Raman is at about 15%.

In addition to picking the winner, Kalshi offers markets for percentages of the vote that the candidates will receive in the primary.

For those who want to take part, the Kalshi promo code offers a $10 Sign-Up Bonus for new users once they have completed $10 in trades.

According to the market rules, if the selected candidate wins the election to be the Los Angeles mayor, the market will resolve to Yes. They must be elected mayor. The City of Los Angeles will verify the outcome.

See a detailed breakdown of election betting odds for the LA Mayors’ race below.

Karen Bass

The current mayor’s main appeal seems to be that most residents know who she is. But name recognition can only go so far, and with Pratt pointing out how ineffectual she’s been while Raman is trying to appeal to people who want a mayor even further to the left than Bass, she is in jeopardy.

She’ll be 73 in October and has been politically active going back to the 1980s. Though she’s only been mayor since 2022, she is the latest in a long line of Democrat mayors going back 25 years, none of which has done much differently than their predecessors.

Still, she is not a prototypical liberal and has been supportive of law enforcement while simultaneously being hostile to immigration enforcement. Given the demographics in L.A., she’s trying to be as much of a bridge candidate as possible. Whether that will be enough to garner enthusiasm to get her past Tuesday is the question. If the hard left–who bothered to vote in 2022 and voted for her as the lesser of two evils against Rick Caruso–sees a more simpatico candidate in Raman, then Bass is in a lot of trouble.

Spencer Pratt

The eye-rolling, quizzical glances and mockery have all but disappeared as Pratt has deftly gone from a joke to a viable candidate who could really end up being mayor of Los Angeles.

A lot has to happen between now and November for that to come to pass, but who expected him to get this far?

While he’s running as a Republican, he’s not doing so as an ideologue. He is running because he lost his home in the 2025 wildfires. As the threat of wildfires was imminent, Bass was in Ghana for the inauguration of that country’s president. She has since expressed regret for that trip. But the damage is done, and Pratt isn’t letting it go.

His platform is simple and an easy sell for those who don’t vote based on party affiliation. He is pro-law enforcement, wants to take a tough love approach to address homelessness and drug addiction among those who are on the streets, and strives to reduce the litany of rules and regulations that hinder progress for businesses and individuals.

Then there are the ads.

He’s used his experience in the entertainment industry to craft memorable commercials, using AI, portraying Bass as a clown and Raman as a leftist puppet, among other characterizations.

His problem is that he’s got the “R” next to his name even though he hasn’t played up that he’s a registered Republican. President Trump has not made a full-throated endorsement, presumably because the president understands that it could do more harm than good. But it’s not hard to see where Trump’s heart is in this race.

Wide swaths of the L.A. electorate are fed up with the same candidates under different names doing the same things over and over, and the situation is getting worse. This cracks the door open for an outsider like Pratt. He’s kicking at it hard.

Nithya Raman

The L.A. City Councilmember has been largely shunted to the side by Pratt after she came roaring out of the gate, running to Bass’s left flank and selling herself as a New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani clone. She claims she would address affordable housing, protect tenants, help the homeless, emphasize treatment with trained professionals called to assist people in crisis in lieu of aggressive LAPD officers, and improve the city’s infrastructure.

Whereas Mamdani puts forth the impression of someone who is flexible for personal advancement, Raman actually seems to believe what she says, which would inevitably be a turnoff to moderate Democrats. The Democratic Socialist movement and its policy positions could bring out the extreme left to vote for her. This is a demographic that is intractable in its beliefs, and if a candidate does not fulfill every item on their wish list, they don’t bother to vote.

They might not bother to vote anyway (“Oh. That was today?”).

She’s plummeted from her high-water mark on the prediction markets of just a shade under 60%. Once her primary campaign attribute of not being Karen Bass dissipated as the voters got to know her, and Pratt garnered greater recognition, her candidacy started sinking.

The only way she wins is if it’s her against Pratt in November. And that’s probably not going to happen.

This is a market where it’s probably worth it for users to take the old Al Davis/Raiders “deep strike” and go with Pratt for the win.

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