Greer Hints New Trump Tariffs on the Way: Trade on US Tariff Revenue for 2026

• President Donald J. Trump’s love of tariffs has not waned despite court intervention invalidating many of his attempts to implement them; toward that end, there are implications that more tariffs are coming
• Jamieson Greer, Trump’s U.S. Trade Representative, appeared on CNBC and was simultaneously cryptic and clear about the potential of new tariffs as the ones now in place are days from expiring
• Prediction markets are closely watching the tariff decisions, with a market for U.S. tariff revenue for 2026 available to users who want to weigh in

Going back decades, President Trump has extolled the virtues of tariffs. In the president’s mind, the objective is to put America first, help U.S. manufacturers, and prevent the country from being taken advantage of. This is a long-held theme in Trump’s worldview, whether it is accurate or not. It was a fundamental tenet in his entire campaign and a key factor in him getting elected in 2016 and 2024: he would protect American interests no matter what blowback he received.

With tariffs, his philosophy and tactics were always built on shaky ground with the very real possibility that the courts would step in and rule against him. And they did, with both the U.S. Court of International Trade and the U.S. Supreme Court issuing rulings to undo the tariffs. The president made a short-term procedural maneuver for a 10% tariff after the SCOTUS decision to invalidate the initial tariffs. With the current tariffs set to expire on July 24, 2026 (barring the unlikely event of Congressional intervention), steps will need to be taken to keep them in place in some fashion.

Trump’s U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was a guest on CNBC and implied that new tariffs were on the way. He did not say it outright, but given Trump’s feelings on the matter, it’s obvious that new tariffs will be put in effect.

With tariffs, revenue would increase. Toward that end, prediction markets are offering users the opportunity to jump in and trade on U.S. tariff revenue for 2026.

Prediction Markets for US Tariff Revenue in 2026

Market volume is very light at the moment, approaching $8,500.

Around 90% of users think the tariff revenue for 2026 will be above $80 billion. Just shy of that percentage think it will surpass $100 billion. It is in the mid-80s for those who think it will go beyond $125 billion. About three in four think it will be more than $150 billion. Just over half say it will be over $200 billion. And one in three say it will go beyond $250 billion.

For those who want to take part in this market, the Kalshi promo code provides a sign up bonus for new traders.

The rules stipulate that the revenue must surpass the selected amount for 2026 for the market to resolve to Yes. The outcome will be verified by FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data).

Read on for a further breakdown of economics prediction markets, like US tariff revenue in 2026.

How Much Revenue Will There Be From Tariffs in 2026?

Tariff revenue hinges on multiple factors, and people thinking about investing in this market should understand and think about that before moving forward. While it is tempting to look at the current numbers as to how much revenue tariffs have brought to the U.S. in 2026, it is not that simple.

There are still legal rulings to contend with and the possibility of refunds. Obviously, needing to give money back to the countries subjected to past tariffs will reduce the overall revenue. The SCOTUS decision to strike down tariffs would require those refunds.

As Trump uses procedural sleight-of-hand to continue with his tariff policy, that is only a short-term solution that the president clearly had in mind if SCOTUS and the U.S. Court of International Trade invalidated his tariffs, which both ultimately did.

There is also the potential for buyers to reduce the amount of imported goods they purchase because of higher prices coming directly as a result of those tariffs. That holds true for everyday consumers and businesses. Countries subjected to the tariffs could respond in kind and lower U.S. exports.

As the Trump administration tries to keep one of the president’s pet issues on the table and continue with the tariffs, hoping to issue checks to the population to show that his policies are “working,” it is a fluid situation that can be hard to accurately project.

Clearly, more tariffs are coming. Greer said it without saying it.

How that impacts the revenue is the question. The current estimate for tariff revenue thus far, with just over five months left in the year, after the refunds, in 2026 is just over $80 billion. Trump is not backing down from his tariffs. It is safe to assume that the tariff revenue for 2026 will be at least $100 billion and probably rise to over $150 billion. It takes a leap of faith to believe that the president’s tariffs will yield more than $200 billion, but there is great profit to be had by taking that stance.

The Trump way is to do what he wants and let the courts hash it out later, with repayments going out when he’s forced to make them under protest and with a long rant on his social media platform. Based on that, the revenue by the end of the year could be beyond $200 billion. The safe pick is over $150 billion, but the educated gamble is to say it is more than $200 billion.

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