Just a few months ago, long-time career feds were deciding what to do with the new $40,000 buyouts that were — at the time — heading their way. Upgrading mid-1990s buyouts from $25,000 to $40,000 made perfect sense. Times change, things cost more and experts figured the new higher-value VSIPs (voluntary separation incentive payments) would lure out at least as many people as they did in the Clinton downsizing years.

Although due for a first launch by the Defense Department, many fed-watchers predicted that, like the last buyouts in the late 20th century, they would likely be extended to other agencies.

Federal officials and think-tank types, who have predicted a retirement tsunami, a tidal wave of retirements since the late 1990s thought this-time-for-sure. Maybe, just maybe, the long-feared, brain-draining exodus would occur. Younger and mid-career employees stuck in the promotion pipeline hoped the new $40K buyouts would become law this year for DoD and by early next year for the rest of government. But nothing …

In Washington, predicting something big (good or bad) that never happens can make the predictor look downright silly. But predicting something 17 years before it happened (like the dreaded retirement tsunami) like a 2016-17 rush to retire, makes one a visionary. Assuming it happens. Which it apparently isn’t going to.

Just a few weeks ago, people who had been predicting and bracing for a government shutdown started bracing again. We were all reminded of the horrors/stupidity/futility of the last one. And the one before that. When hundreds of thousands of feds were locked out of their jobs, popular public services were stopped and, in the end, employees wound up getting paid for not working. The Republican congressional leadership, right or wrong, took most of the heat and got most of the bad publicity.

But it now appears that thanks to the calendar, the fast-approaching Nov. 8 election, and Congress’ generous time-outs this year, the House and Senate have only a few working days left. Things are so tight on Capitol Hill that the House and Senate may go to a five-day, maybe even a six-day work week to sweep up and package what they haven’t done this year. Or last. Or most of the ones before that. Such as authorize the government to keep running — either by a short-term continuing resolution (through Dec. 9) or, now, more likely an omnibus spending bill that would do the same thing but through the end of the current fiscal year Sept. 30.

As long-time feds, from Austin to Anchorage, have learned, it’s wise to be a little wary when politicians start dealing with the people (as in employee) side of government. But more often than not the threat or threats fizzle as Congress once again adjourns, with a small sigh rather than a big bang.

Nearly Useless Factoid

By Michael O’Connell

Jim Parsons of “The Big Bang Theory” portrayed a bird in his first school play in elementary school.

Source: IMDB

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