Oil Prices Fall 4% as Hormuz Ship Traffic Increases: Trade on Markets for Crude Oil Prices

• Oil prices have been directly impacted by the U.S.-Iran conflict, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been weaponized in recent months
• President Donald J. Trump has repeatedly teased that an agreement to end hostilities is near, and the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be under threat
• No agreement has been reached, but oil prices have dropped as ship traffic in the area is on the rise, and prediction markets offer options for users to speculate on Brent crude oil prices this week

It’s nothing new for President Trump to make unsubstantiated and ultimately inaccurate statements about, well, everything. This goes back decades to when he first burst onto the scene in his father’s real estate business, became a fixture in the gossip columns, turned into a part of the zeitgeist, and ultimately ran for president and won.

Now, however, his actions and statements have real world consequences. With the Iran war turning into a referendum on him and, indirectly, the Republican party, his agenda for the final two years of his term could be undone with a poor GOP showing in the rapidly approaching midterms. It behooves him to get this conflict behind him. This, in part, is spurring his frequent “the deal is close” statements that have not yet been based in fact.

His latest sanguine assessment is that the deal could be done to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days. However, the U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that ship traffic is “rising very meaningfully.” This sparked a drop in oil prices. The international benchmark, Brent crude, dropped by more than 3%.

Trump’s statements are understandably taken with a level of skepticism. But for his energy secretary to say that traffic in the contested strait is rising has given some solace that a deal may be on the horizon, with the accompanying reduction in oil prices.

Prediction markets give users the opportunity to weigh in on the price of Brent crude by the end of the workweek.

Prediction Markets for Crude Oil Closing Price on Friday

Market volume has surpassed $70,000.

At the moment, Brent crude is at around $90 or so.

More than 90% of those involved in this market believe it will be above $82.99 by 5:00 PM EDT, Friday, June 12. The percentage is at 90 for those who believe it will be above $84.99. It is approximately 80% for it to be above $86.99.

It’s hovering around 60% of those believing it will be above $88.99.

More than 60% think it will be over $90.99. Half think it will be above $92.99. It drops to more than one-quarter who see it closing at over $94.99. A shade under 20% think it will be more than $96.99. It drops to the low-teens for it to be over $98.99. Around 10% think it will be more than $100.99.

For those who want to jump into this market, the Kalshi promo code offers a $10 Sign-Up Bonus after $10 in trades have been completed.

The market rules can be complex, so it is imperative to understand them from the outset. The closing price for the BRENTQ6 contract on June 12, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT will be used. It must be above the selected price for the market to resolve to Yes.

Pyth will verify the outcome.

Is a Deal Really Close or Is It More Trump Overselling?

All too often, President Trump runs the country like he’s running his private business and making a sale. That can sometimes be a positive in that it gives a different perspective than presidents from the past. There’s no doubt that Trump has been a great promoter and salesman. However, as president, that can complicate negotiations where an offhand remark that he didn’t even think about and will presumably forget as quickly as he uttered it can cause markets to bungee cord up and down, leaving those along for the ride with financial whiplash.

At what point will Trump’s repeated statements that a deal with Iran is coming “in days” be true?

Eventually, it will.

Both sides want this over with. Still, simultaneously with him saying that negotiations are approaching the finish line, he’ll make an apocalyptic threat to the Iranian regime. Then bombs will start flying back and forth, and Trump will downplay them as though they are part of the negotiating process.

Markets react to what the president says, even someone as cavalier in his comments as Trump.

Trump’s randomness is being counterbalanced by Wright, the energy secretary. For him to come out and specifically say that the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing suggests that the sides are finally stepping back and preparing to put pen to paper to end this. It sounds…sounds…as if all that’s left is for the agreement to be worded in such a way that the Trump administration and the Iranian regime can go back to their respective countries and say, “We got what we wanted.”

There’s no separating the dispute from fuel prices. But the markets seem reasonably confident that Trump is telling the truth this time.

For those who hope to profit on an accurate prediction for the price of Brent crude by the close of business in the eastern time zone on Friday, the safest pick at this moment is for it to be above $88.99. This seems like a reasonable number to account for Trump’s hyperbolic nature, the Iranians wanting to move on, and Wright’s tactical comment about ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz flowing more easily.

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