Contractors handicap the possibility of a government shutdown

They don’t want it, but contractors are preparing for a possible lapse in appropriations at the end of the month: a government shutdown, that is. Even if they agree on numbers, members of Congress don’t agree on the policy riders each party wants on a spending bill. So what to do, to help your company through it? For more information, the Federal Drive with Tom Temin checked in with federal sales and marketing consultant Larry Allen.

Interview transcript: 

Tom Temin  Here we go again, I guess. Shutdown fever is hitting Washington with a couple of weeks to go. What’s your take?

Larry Allen My take on it is that we aren’t really going to know if there’s a shutdown right up until the last minute. I don’t think we’re going to have a shutdown as we are doing this show right now. But as you mentioned, we’ve got a couple of weeks left and there’s still many variables out there. There really isn’t too much of a difference in terms of the actual spending amounts. It’s just really on the spending side, a question of how long you want a continuing resolution to go. Do you want one to take you just past the election or do you want one to take you well into the calendar year? And that’s a big question. But the policy riders, whether they’re talking about voter ID or more aid for Ukraine or other things that you really need to build some solid coalitions around. That’s where the delays are going to come up.

Tom Temin All right. And let’s talk the worst case scenario that there is a lapse. What do you tell your clients’ contractors to do if that happens?

Larry Allen Well, I think the best thing to do, even though it’s difficult right now because of where we are in the fiscal year, is you’ve got to have those discussions with your federal customers and particularly for contracts that you already have or you’re delivering things here that are going to be deliveries that come maybe in early October. Or you’ve got people who are co-located on federal sites. You know, those are issues that you want to get squared away. You probably know by now, because we’ve been through it so much, Tom, that those federal workers who work, those contractor workers who work on federal sites aren’t going to be able to do that. You do want to figure out how you can get paid. And that’s kind of a key issue, and whether you’re going to get paid, so that you can at least plan for your business. I think you also need to keep an eye on how long this could last if we have one. This is an election year. It’s a close election year. So there’s really no telling just how much of an impact election year politics could have if we do face a shutdown.

Tom Temin And let’s talk about the idea of a C.R., because that requires a different strategy on behalf of suppliers, contractors.

Larry Allen Right. So I think, you know, traditionally, Tom, the House and Senate passed a short or medium term C.R. So traditionally, that’s what passes for a recent tradition anyway. So, you know, if they follow the traditional route, you can expect to see a C.R. until maybe mid-November or the beginning of December. But there is a faction in the House that has already proposed setting a C.R. in place until the end of March. Whether we get a C.R. now that goes all the way to the end of March or end up operating under C.R. for that long, we are going to have the year start under a continuing resolution, which means no new project starts. No, it’s going to be a day to day battle. Unfortunately, if we have one that goes until the end of March, it’s going to look a lot like fiscal year 2024 in terms of the pace of government business and how up and down things are depending on the sources of money and what your individual customer agency has.

Tom Temin We’re speaking with Larry Allen. He’s president of Allen Federal Business Partners. Yeah. So really, then, any new initiative under a C.R. that goes to March is going to be effectively not happen because you can’t launch it until next year. Sometime you’re back again toward the end of the next fiscal.

Larry Allen That’s exactly right. And even for things that may have a high political priority, if they’re reliant, Tom, on appropriated funds, they’re just not going to happen until those final vote and vote final appropriations get passed. It’s really too early to tell. If you look at the way the tea leaves are going right now, you would say, well, we’re probably going to have a shorter term C.R. that is stripped of all the policy riders that takes us to the middle of November or the beginning of December. The real question I think that has yet to be answered on that scenario is whether we’ll have a short term shutdown before we get a short term C.R.

Tom Temin And anyway, there’s always the Inflation Reduction Act. You can use that to buy anything.

Larry Allen Right. And agencies do.

Tom Temin And they do, yes, to the tune of billions. On another topic, you have pointed out that AI can be useful, but maybe not the best tool to generate your responses to those solicitations that do come through.

Larry Allen Yeah, Tom, this is something that’s interesting. Of course, industry and the federal government have been talking a lot about air use and different government solutions. But here we’re talking about how can and cannot be used in the acquisition process itself. And recently I’ve had the opportunity to sit down at a couple of conferences and speak with a number of colleagues, some who have a very good idea about current air capabilities. And the takeaway that I’ve gotten from those discussions is that while I can be a valuable tool, the state of air and acquisition is not to the point yet where it’s a set it and forget it type of situation. It’s not a substitute now and ideally I think would never be a substitute for contracting officers own learned decisions. But you need to understand right now that the technology isn’t there to do it for you, that there’s still a human element that very much is needed. So whether you’re a contractor relying on something like ChatGPT or to put together your solicitation response or whether you’re a contracting officer, a contract specialist that’s relying on AI to make a business decision for you, you have to understand it’s only a partial solution and that you know, your own intelligence, your own experience all still need to be used in this process.

Tom Temin And anyway, you know, if you write something with AI, it’s going to need a lot of editing and you’ll have to go through it line by line to make sure it’s really what you hoped it would say and it might end up not saving you any time anyway in creating a bid.

Larry Allen Well, that’s exactly right. In fact, one of the air experts I was speaking with last week made the analogy that, you know, even a certain amount of background noise can change a AI response from what it’s supposed to be to something wildly different. And when you think about how much background noise you have in an office environment, or even if you’re working out of your home office, sometimes, you know, the yard crew outside, the kids are home from school, what have you, you know, that can really change what you’re intending to say and really speaks to the fact that you need to carefully review what it is you’re writing. And you can’t over rely on tools that you know. This is my frequent rejoinder about tools, and that is tools are great in the hands of people who know how to use them, but they’re ultimately not willing to do the entire job for you.

Tom Temin Right? We all know what a hammer can do to the thumb, if misapplied.

Larry Allen All right.

Tom Temin Larry Allen is president of Allen Federal Business Partners.

Larry Allen Thanks so much, Tom. Thank you. And I wish your listeners happy selling.

Tom Temin We’ll post this interview at federalnewsnetwork.com/federaldrive. Hear the Federal Drive on demand. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

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