What now, with a coming new complexion in Congress
"This is where the members elect who come to town for the first time learn things like setting up a congressional office," said Loren Duggan.
The new Congress will look a lot different from the one that expires in a few weeks. Budget discussions for both this fiscal and next are scrambled. Plus there’s a load of internal business the outcome of which will have a big effect on federal agencies. The Federal Drive with Tom Temin got more now from Bloomberg Government deputy news director Loren Duggan.
Interview transcript:
Loren Duggan They had a really long recess to run for re-election and then get the results, which is now what they’re digesting as they settle back in to do some business for the current Congress, and obviously get ready for the Congress that will start next January.
Tom Temin And I had an initial question with the forthcoming Trump administration picking at least so far, two Republican Congress members for his administration, Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), to the United Nations and Tim Waltz (D-Neb.), national security adviser, that could jeopardize. How would that affect that thin margin of leadership if the Republicans end up that way?
Loren Duggan It would temporarily deprive them of that member if that member has to be confirmed in the case of Elise Stefanik, who’s going for a job subject to confirmation, or Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), national security adviser. That’s not a confirmation job. So he could leave whenever, they would have a vacancy in those two seats and the states would have to schedule an election before they’d have a member to replace them. So that would whittle down the number of Republicans in that very thin majority, which as of today is still being nailed down what the number would be. The Democrats have an inside chance, but most likely would be Republicans. But as you point out, fewer. Now a senator, if they get nominated, governors can replace a senator through appointment, sometimes with different rules in different states. But that is a pretty immediate replacement as opposed to an election which can take months.
Tom Temin Right. And if, say, Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) would become secretary of state, that’s a reliable Republican nomination.
Loren Duggan Yes, it is. And senators usually get deference when they’re nominated. So you would assume he’d be confirmed. Governor Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) would appoint someone and then that person may face election in two years a little early. But given the trends in that state, a safe Republican place at this point.
Tom Temin All right. In the meantime, aside from all that, they have orientation to get through. And what happens there and what does that result in, if anything, that would affect operations?
Loren Duggan A couple of things. This is where the members elect who come to town for the first time learn things like setting up a congressional office, meet their peers, meet the lobbying in K Street community and receptions that will get set up there, and also begin to figure out how next Congress will operate through the leadership elections that have to take place for Senate majority leader, that’s a big one. And then also a House slot that will be opened up because of Elise Stefanik’s pick there to be the U.N. ambassador.
Tom Temin All right. And yes, so that must be fun. The orientations are in Washington, although they don’t immediately repair to resorts outside of D.C. for that.
Loren Duggan No, that’s right here in town, because some of the people doing the orientation have their day job staffing. The members of Capitol Hill who are voting on things this week in both the Senate and the House and a couple of committees. So it’s kind of the lame duck session that’s taking place, along with this look ahead to next year.
Tom Temin And in the lame duck, then what is going to happen? Let’s talk about something that’s really meaty, and that’s the National Defense Authorization Act. Never did get it through before the recess.
Loren Duggan That’s right. The House has passed a bill on a fairly partisan basis. It started out bipartisan committee. But because of the amendments adopted on the floor, the Senate hasn’t taken up its version, but they have been working behind the scenes on a compromise that I think they’ll try to continue to nail down and try to move that before the end of the year. Their six decades plus in a row of doing this on an annual basis. No one wants to break that streak. So that’s one of the things I would look to get done in this period, if not in November, maybe in December when they come back after Thanksgiving.
Tom Temin But could it be more contentious potentially, just because that the Republicans know they have a so-called trifecta just beyond the conclusion of that? And then but it could be the legacy policies of the prior Congress.
Loren Duggan That bill, because of its bipartisan nature, I could see there being a deal that’s less affected by that than something like spending, which maybe we can come back to. But because of the troop pay that needs to be authorized because of the contract things that need to get going in NDAA, Dec. 31 is sort of been the kind of touch point to get that done. And I think they will try to get that one. And if that bill is going to be one of the few things moving, it will become an attractive vehicle for other things which may raise its chances of getting done.
Tom Temin We’re speaking with Loren Duggan, deputy news director at Bloomberg Government. And then, of course, there’s budget. And there’s really two budgets now. One is the 2025 appropriations to replace the CR, and you can remind us one that’s expiring. And then, of course, the 26 submissions are at the point of trigger poll.
Loren Duggan That’s right. So 2025, we have government funded through Dec. 20, which was the date that was selected back in September before they left for recess. Now, that was the compromise that was reached before we knew what would happen with the election results, which could shift that. There’s basically a few options. One is full year government funding if they want to get that done. But there seems to be a growing interest in perhaps kicking the can into March, into next year into the Trump administration. That was House Republicans initial position, if you remember, back to September, and we may be getting back there now. It’s not clear that that will be accepted, but that is certainly the dynamic that’s taking shape there. On 2026, agencies do begin their work. We tend to focus on the release of the budget whenever that’s done in February, March, April, whenever. But below the surface, there’s all this work in agencies, past backs, and some of that work will continue. But likely Donald Trump and his administration will want to put their own stamp on that. So that could delay the release of the budget until later in the spring once they take office.
Tom Temin In other words, the potential for a full year appropriation coming halfway through the year, which has happened a couple of times in recent years, this could be deja vu all over again.
Loren Duggan It really could, if that’s the choice they make now and give themselves some wiggle room to start negotiating this once the trifecta, if that is indeed what comes to fruition, has the chance to begin imprinting its will on that document.
Tom Temin And when the Senate gets to choosing its majority leader, that’s probably going to be fairly quick. On the surface, the three contenders are Kumbaya. And I think as long as it’s not Mitch McConnell (R-Ala.), then everyone will be happy with the outcome.
Loren Duggan As we saw coming out of the weekend, there was some chatter. And Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who’s probably the most Trump aligned of the three candidates, was picking up some endorsements publicly, including from folks like Elon Musk. So he has that little wind at his back. But John Thune (R-S.D.) And John Cornyn (R-Texas.), John Thune, the number two currently, John Cornyn, a former number two in the Republican Party, they’re sort of the more establishment picks, have long histories and have supported their colleagues with a lot of money. We’ll see what dynamic really pushes it here. But that election should be pretty quick. Once they get in the back room, do their balloting, and we’ll see what comes out of that, and also see what rules changes may come about as a result of that. Because Donald Trump is asking the Senate to do things in certain ways, and we’ll see how they respond.
Tom Temin Yeah, this is something you don’t see as much with the incoming administration kind of sending task orders, if you will, to the Congress that the president will get. It seems like Trump administration is more active at this point now than it was the first time around.
Loren Duggan I think they had more groundwork laid on this, and some people in mind, some transition team people. And he had his chief of staff pretty quickly. So things are moving quickly and we’ll continue down that road. Congress is its own branch and they may say, Wait, wait, wait, we’re going to make our own decision here. But he’s certainly speaking up already about some of the things he’d like to see. And I’m sure that’s just the beginning of how the dynamic will play out over the next few years.
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Tom Temin
Tom Temin is host of the Federal Drive and has been providing insight on federal technology and management issues for more than 30 years.
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