Does your local TV weather person sometimes appear to be on nerve-jangling drugs? Does he or she — even after years on air — still seemed shocked and often fearful that in most parts of the U.S., it gets cold in the winter and conversely, like now on the East Coast, hot in the summer? Sometimes really hot.

The ability of some weather persons to express shock, awe and sometimes fear over pending weather events, then quickly recover if they turn out to be not-so-bad could be useful in politics. Or in predicting what federal and postal workers will do when certain opportunities are offered them. Or denied.

For at least the past 17 years, some experts have predicted that the end-is-near. That is that huge numbers of Uncle Sam’s best, brightest and most experienced will say F^<# it, I’m outta here. That retirement tsunami, it was predicted, would leave the government short of people who knew what they were doing. And why.

Federal agencies would have to take drastic measures (like speeding up the hiring process and paying people better) to get replacements to staff vital program. Warning of, then dealing with, the tidal wave became a cottage industry in Washington. Fine, except for one thing. It hasn’t happened though first spotted (maybe by a wanna-be-weather person) in the late 1990s.

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Fast forward to today. Had things gone as predicted (by folks like me) many of you would be reading this from home, or a deck chair on the beach. Had the experts been correct, many of you would be off today because you were in the phased retirement program. The PR plan gave federal agencies authority to setup their own systems. There were no time limits on how long someone could be in PR status, provided he/she worked no more than 20 hours per week and spent a specified amount of that time mentoring other workers.

Backers and advocates of the PR plan said it would revolutionize government, make federal service more attractive and efficient and be wildly popular. And cure baldness. (Actually I just made that up, but you get the point). Because so many people were expected to apply for the program, many agencies developed systems for picking and rejecting candidates. Congress was urged to legalize it pronto and when it did, the Office of Personnel Management took almost two years (a lifetime, according to advocates) to issue some very general rules.

The Defense Department (one of the most innovative government operations when it comes to people programs) said it would offer phased retirement. Experts estimated it would save $450 million over the next 10 years. You could hear champagne corks popping all over D.C. But one problem. After four-plus years of prepping, planning and pushing and all the money spent in prepping and planning only about 90 people (that is Niner Zero, Nike Oscar) feds have applied for it.

That’s about the number of people sitting in a not-too-crowded city bus. Or the number of folks, carrying hot coffee, who fall down in the street each day in New York City. For details on the program, or non-program, as it were, click here.

What’s next? What triumph or tragedy do you think we will be told the government will face next? Robots replacing people? Thoughts? Let us know at: mcausey@federalnewsradio.com. After what has happened (and more often than not, not happened as predicted) your guess is as good as anyone’s. And it might be fun reading.

Meantime prediction. For most of the lower 48, it’s going to be hot today, so be careful out there.

Nearly Useless Factoid

By Michael O’Connell

There are more than 40,000 varieties of cultivated rice.

Source: The Rice Association

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