This is the time of the year that I become That Guy.

Every office has one: The guy who doesn’t pay attention to the NCAA college basketball tournament. I just have never been a basketball guy. So when March Madness rolls around, for me it’s more like March Malaise. The madness has already started on Capitol Hill, though, for federal employees. Federal News Radio reported on four bills that could affect your job and salary. But what chance do they really have? Usually, odds- making would be in order. But during March Madness, of course, no one bets on basketball. So rather than offering odds, let’s look at each one, and see how far it might advance toward making the finals — a signature from President Barack Obama. The most important thing to remember with pending legislation is that any member can file a bill, any time. So it’s especially important to understand the who, why and how behind every bill when your paycheck is on the line. So here’s a check on each of the four bills that make up Congress’ version of March Madness.

1. The Promotion Accountability In Decisions (PAID) for Progress ActTale of the tape: This bill from Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.) would cut the salaries of feds making over $100,000 a year by almost nine per cent until the economic recovery is complete (active-duty military wouldn’t be affected). Rice says “government regulations have restricted recovery, causing everyday expenses like gas, groceries and electricity to eat up families’ budgets. Meanwhile, the federal bureaucrats making these decisions and imposing regulations are taking home six-figure salaries.” Scouting report: Price is a second-term member from one of the reddest districts in one of the reddest states (he won reelection with 60 percent of the vote in 2014). But he voted against Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) clean bill to fund the Homeland Security Department. Rice has to build bridges with leadership and perhaps earn some tenure before he gets a shot. Prediction: First-round flameout. May not even make the tournament — as of press time, the Web page where the press release was originally posted now can’t be found.  
2. The Government Employee Pension Reform Act of 2015Tale of the tape: Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) introduced this bill. It’s a simple concept, one that has been around since the 1970s: Federal employee retirements would be based on the highest five years of the employee’s salary instead of the highest three. The Congressional Budget Office says the bill would save $3.1 billion over 10 years. It would touch civilian federal employees and members of Congress and their staffs, but not military pensions (detect a theme here?). Advocacy groups and unions naturally were revolted immediately. Scouting report: Westerman is another newcomer from a red state: a rookie first-termer from Arkansas. He knows his way around a legislature, though. He was the first Republican majority leader in the Natural State’s House of Representatives since Reconstruction. And $3.1 billion over 10 years gets attention on the Hill, especially as budget negotiations between two Republican chambers drag on into the summer and early fall. “When you have a stand-alone bill on any issue, it’s much more likely to be inserted in bigger pieces of legislation,” Jessica Klement of the National Active and Retired Federal Employees told me. When Congress needs an offset in budget negotiations, Klement said, “[Congress could say] oh, Mr. Westerman has this bill, this will save me $3 billion, let’s use that to pay for [for example] highway funding.” Prediction: Elite Eight. This one will be around for a while, and if it does lose before it gets to the Final Four, you can bet it will be back next year, and maybe the year after.  
3. The Shut Down the Shutdowns ActTale of the tape: Rep. Alan Grayson’s (D-Fla.) bill aims to eliminate even the threat of another government shutdown. Agency funding would automatically continue at the previous year’s level if Congress doesn’t get a bill done in time. Congress would still have the ability to pass short-term continuing resolutions and appropriated bills after the ends of fiscal years as they do now, but a CR would automatically kick in without them. Scouting report: Grayson’s bill is the most “run-government-like-a-business” bill of the bunch. No business would ever allow itself to just close down because the leadership couldn’t agree on what to spend money on. But Grayson is the wrong person to lead this effort. He’s a Democrat in a Republican world; and he’s known more for his vitriolically partisan rhetoric and grandstanding (this story features a 2009 photo of the Monopoly money tie he wore to a hearing featuring then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke) than for serious legislating. And there is a larger element than you might expect of members from both parties who likes having shutdowns as a potential club with which to beat the other side over the head. Prediction: One-and-done. Won’t even make it out of the play-in game.  
4. The Realign and Eliminate Duplicative Unnecessary Costly Excess (REDUCE) in Government Act of 2015Tale of the tape: Rep. John Fleming (R-La.) proposes a nine-member commission to assess agency programs and propose a list to be realigned or eliminated. Then Congress would vote up or down on the whole batch. The process appears to be very similar to the Base Realignment and Closure process that Congress currently hates. Theme alert: Defense Department programs would be exempt from Fleming’s Commission. Scouting report: Fleming is a fourth-term member from a deep red district (he won reelection in 2014 with 73 percent of the vote), so leadership doesn’t need to throw him a bone for election purposes. And eliminating programs is perhaps the most uphill battle on Capitol Hill. At some point, at least 218 of Fleming’s colleagues voted in favor of starting the programs his bill would eventually kill. Prediction: Sweet 16. Might garner some co-sponsors, might last a few rounds, but will likely wilt under scrutiny.

All four of these bills are now officially part of Congress’ Big Dance. But having now considered the contents of each one, and the potential impact on the federal workforce, I think another sports analogy might be more apt. NASCAR has a time of the year called Silly Season, when drivers, owners and sponsors switch allegiances. Maybe that’s a better name for what we’re seeing from Congress. Because if this list of bills is any indication, the silliness — for these bills, and others yet to be cooked up — will likely last long past March.

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Francis Rose is host of Federal News Radio’s In Depth radio show, which airs weekdays from 4-7 p.m.

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