Feet cold? Put on a hat. If anything, we're entering a golden age for federal HR.
Get in a room full of federal human resources people and the question comes up inevitably: What if there’s a hiring freeze?
Someone worriedly asked it at my lunch table during the HCMG conference the other day. I piped up. “Absolutely nothing” will change if the Trump administration imposes a hiring freeze in January. First of all, a freeze would exempt so many functions as to exclude probably half the federal population in the first place. Agencies with funded openings would likely be able to go ahead.
Study after study shows hiring freezes don’t have any effect on federal employment levels or costs. Yet federal employment levels do go up and down as budgets and administration policies play out over time. Office of Personnel Management figures show executive branch employment, which peaked during the George H.W. Bush administration, has been steadily, if slowly, undulating up and down around the 2.6 million mark since 2000. (The peaks reflect temporary hiring for Census counts.) Right now it’s roughly at the same level as during the Lyndon Johnson administration.
Looking at OPM tables, you’d have to say the modern day president that seems to have cut federal employment permanently and the most was Bill Clinton.
For a steady and dramatic drop, look at the figures for uniformed military personnel, which is now half of 1962 levels.
So no, a half-baked freeze for a few months won’t make any difference.
If anything, we’re entering a golden age for federal HR.
For instance:
While some existing career people whine “woe is me” over the prospect of Donald Trump as president, others realize the mission and technology challenges of governments are great enticements to potential employees of all ages. They’re discovering new ways to get them in.
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Tom Temin is host of the Federal Drive and has been providing insight on federal technology and management issues for more than 30 years.
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