The U.S. stock market was down 1,254.85 points, or 4.21 percent last week. That represents a “paper” loss of about $1.3 trillion with a “T.” If you are invested in the Thrift Savings Plan’s C and S funds, that means you, too.

Even after last week’s scary declines we remain, so far, in the longest bull market in stock market history. That makes some people even more nervous because we are long overdue for a major correction. And many investors have not yet recovered from the Great Recession of 2008. When that happened tens of thousands of active and retired TSP investors pulled out of the stock market and put all their retirement nest egg in the G-funds treasury securities.

While their money was “safe” they missed the soaring return of the stock market.

Since the market starting acting up — as in going down — last week, many long-happy C and S fund investors are getting nervous. Is this the time to bail out? And if so, where to go and for how long? How do you know when the market has peaked or bottomed out?

You can read anything in the statistical tea leaves of the stock market. According to Wilshire 5000, the stock market closed Friday at 29,568.93 ending the week down 1,254.85 points, or a loss of 4.21 percent. That translates into a paper loss of $1.3 trillion. The Wilshire 5000 fell for the third week in a row. Here is the good and bad news:

• This is the longest weekly losing streak since June 24, 2016, which also concluded with three negative weeks in a row.
• For the day, (Oct. 12) the Wilshire 5000 was up 370.46 points or 1.31 percent — this represents a paper gain for the day of approximately $400 billion.
• This is the best one-day gain for the Wilshire 5000 since April 10, 2018 ended up 461.35 points or 1.70 percent.
• The Wilshire 5000 rose for the first time in the past seven trading days.
• For the month, the Wilshire 5000 index is down 5.58 percent or approximately $1.8 trillion but for the year, the Wilshire 5000 index is up 2.86 percent or approximately $875 billion.
• Since the Sept. 20, 2018 market high, the Wilshire 5000 index is down 6.22 percent or approximately $2.1 trillion.
• Since the recent, April 2, 2018 market low, the Wilshire 5000 index is up 6.63 percent or approximately $2.0 trillion.
• Since Jan. 20, 2017, the close on the day of President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the Wilshire 5000 has gained 20.32 percent or approximately $5.3 trillion.
• Since Nov. 8, 2016, the close on the day of the 2016 Election, the Wilshire 5000 has gained 28.89 percent or approximately $7.4 trillion.
• Since Dec. 15, 2015, the close before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since June 29, 2006, the Wilshire 5000 index is up 35.40 percent or approximately $8.6 trillion.
• Since Sept. 12, 2012, the close before Bernanke revealed QE3, the Wilshire 5000 index is up 89.97 percent or approximately $15.6 trillion.
• Since Aug. 26, 2010, the close before Bernanke revealed QE2, the Wilshire 5000 index is up 160.36 percent or approximately $20.2 trillion.
• The Wilshire 5000 is up 316.55 percent or $26.1 trillion from the Financial Crisis low of March 9, 2009.
• Since the old, Oct. 9, 2007 market high, the Wilshire 5000 index is up 80.74 percent or approximately $16.0 trillion.

They are fascinating numbers — some good, some not so good, some daily, some decades old. So what do you do with them? Do you stick with the market or head for the G-fund until … and when is that?

For some tips about long-term investing in the TSP, check out our Your Turn radio show Wednesday at 10 a.m.  EDT. Financial planner Arthur Stein has a large number of federal investor clients  including several TSP millionaires. He’ll talk about what many people consider “safe” investments that, over the long haul, can eat into your retirement nest egg.

Questions for Stein can be sent to mcausey@federalnewsnetwork.com and the show will be streamed at www.federalnewsnetwork.com, or on 1500 AM in the Washington, D.C. area.

Nearly Useless Factoid

By Amelia Brust

The English word “serendipity” comes from the Persian fairy tale “The Three Princes of Serendip,” about a trio of royal siblings who, through accident and clever discernment, identify a camel they have never seen. Serendip was the Old Persian name for Sri Lanka.

Source: Wikipedia

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