When somebody writes the definitive Rise and Fall of The American Civil Service book, the years 2009 and 2011 will be writ large.

I think…

Two years ago, federal and postal workers, and retirees, were riding high. Congress, with a push from the Obama administration, made major improvements in the Thrift Savings Plan. Reemployment rules were liberalized for returning retired feds. Bottom line: The year 2009 may go down in history as the best-ever that current and former feds have enjoyed on Capitol Hill.

Now, in 2011, feds are hunkering down for what could be a hammering of historic proportions. For the past two years the public and politicians have been living off a diet of statistics providing/purporting (choose one) that civil servants are overpaid any way you hack it. The meltdown of state and local government finances, and take-back efforts at the state and local government level, have set the stage for major cutbacks in pay and benefits at the federal government level.

Despite administration efforts (and successes) in streamlining hiring, efforts to bring out-sourced jobs back into government, and plans to implement a workable (and acceptable) pay for performance system, the mood is to cut, downsize, freeze, et cetera.

The kickoff was a two-year federal pay freeze which may be extend another one, two or three years. The administration is seriously considering plans to force feds to pay more toward their retirement. If implemented, that would permanently reduce take-home pay 5 to 6 percent for 4 out of 5 current civil servants. There is serious talk of changing the retirement formula (from the high-3 back to the high-5) which would reduce anticipated (promised?) annuities or force people to work longer to get the benefits they had expected.

And another money-saving idea would gradually raise employee contributions to their health insurance premiums (now about 30 percent). That would also reduce take-home pay and could force some workers to switch from so-called “Cadillac health plans” to less costly (and in some cases less comprehensive) coverage.

Politicians from both parties want the government to offer the same services with far fewer people. To insure that it happens (at least the last part,) there are plans to freeze virtually all hiring until Uncle Sam has lost about 150,000 people around his mid-section.

So how bad is it, really? How much of this is talk and how much of it is for real?

What is the government, your agency, your paycheck and your insurance and retirement package going to look like two years from now? Let’s attempt to find out.

Today at 10 a.m., on our “Your Turn with Mike Causey” radio show (click here to listen) we will talk with Steve Watkins, editor of the Federal Times, and senior writer Steve Losey. They’ve been watching the proposed changes coming from the White House, Congress and even the Blair House, and trying to figure out who’s doing what, to whom and what it might mean to you. Subjects range from:

• The impact of any change from the high-3 to a high-5 retirement formula.
• Labor-management partnerships, which are important whether you are a union member or a member of management. Are they working?
• Hiring slowdowns in the Air Force and other agencies.
• Buyouts. The Smithsonian, Federal Trade Commissionand some defense units are offering them. Many long-time IRSworkers are chomping at the bit. Are large-scale take-the-money-and-run offers coming? If so, when and where?
• The status of the TSO runoff election, which begins this week, between the American Federation of Government Employees and the independent National Treasury Employees Union.
• What to expect at tomorrow’s House hearings on “right-sizing” (as in cutting) the size and shape of the federal workforce. Where do your job and your promotion chances, fit into the grand scheme?

And anything you want to talk about, or ask. If you have questions or comments, fire them off to me at: mcausey@federalnewsradio.com. If we’ve got answers, we’ll tell you. Ditto if it is simple guess-work or a could-be gut feeling. But it will be a no-hype session. Listen (and call in) if you can. Our number is 202.465.3080. That’s 10 a.m. EDT.

To reach me: mcausey@federalnewsradio.com

Nearly Useless Factoid
by Suzanne Kubota

What may prove to be the Best-NUF-Ever comes from SmithsonianMagazine:

“The Incas dominated much of South America for centuries, building a vast empire that stretched high into the Andes where the terraced city of Machu Picchu still inspires wonder. Now scientists…reveal what made it all possible: llama dung.”

It’s all about the corn. The dung was used to fertilize cultivated corn which “provided more energy and could be stored or transported long distances, perfect for fueling a growing empire.”

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