Feds In Battleground States

Now that the Olympics are over (they are over, right?) the media can focus on another kind of horse race, demolition derby, football game, contest. That is the two major political parties “nominating” conventions over the next two weeks. Even though we’ve got a pretty good idea of who is going to get nominated by both parties. Then the race to the White House.

According to the news media, there are more than 17,000 media types (many of them from foreign countries) accredited to this week’s convention. For point of reference that’s more than the 16,700 nonpostal feds who live and work in Minnesota, but fewer than the 35,600 feds in Colorado. Each state is hosting one of the conventions this year.

Most of the time much of the media got who would win the nomination and who the vice presidential pick would be wrong. Think back. Can you say Rudy Guiliani or Mike Huckabee?

But now the media has designated 19 states as “battlegrounds” meaning either candidate could win them. Once defined, the media hired various people to find out how they say they are going to vote. On Aug. 21, National Public Radio issued the results of its poll of 1,124 people in the up-for-grab 19 states. That number is correct. They didn’t poll 1,124 people in each state. That’s the grand total the polled to represent everybody 18 and older in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Many of those states – Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia – have sizable numbers of federal and postal workers. And retired feds and their families. Others, like Alaska with a small population have a major federal presence.

There is no evidence that feds vote as a bloc. But as yesterday’s column noted the vast majority of federal, postal workers are old enough to vote, most work in high tech, scientific or professional or administrative fields. In other words smart folks, most of whom were tested and vetted before being hired. The textbook ideal voter.

Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia have the largest concentrations of feds. But California and Texas also have a large federal presence. Not counting postal workers, California has 153,000 federal workers and Texas has 124,600.

Not included in these totals are the 800,000 postal workers, heavily concentrated in many of those up-for-grabs-states. The 2 million plus retired feds live everywhere but many either retired close to their jobs, or moved to sunbelt states. Despite the emphasis on the youth vote, older people tend to have a higher turnout.

Maryland (111,600 nonpostal feds) and DC (149,000 nonpostal feds) are not battlegrounds, according to the media and the voting patterns in past elections. But Virginia, with 128,000 nonpostal feds is, according to the media, in play. I think that means that one side or the other will win.

For a look at the state-by-state federal population, click here.

For those of us who live in states considered “safe” for one party, regardless of who is running, we maybe ought to think about what we are doing wrong.

Nearly Useless Factoid

The 110th Congress is close to becoming the most deadly term for lawmakers in the past 20 years. Scripps Howard reports the death of Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones, D-Ohio, who died last week of a brain aneurysm, brings to eight the number of legislators who have died since the current Congress began in January 2007. That ties the death toll of eight for the 100th Congress, which ran from 1987 to 1989. The current Congress ends in January.

To reach me: mcausey@federalnewsradio.com

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