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A government "shutdown" isn't really a shutdown. Many services will continue, but hundreds of thousands of federal workers will be forced off the job, and some services will go dark.
The pay raise process established in the U.S. Code relies on federally-collected data, which should make it easy to predict a year in advance just what kind of a pay raise federal employees will be getting.
Federal News Radio breaks down locality pay: what it is, how affects your final salary and how it came to be.